It’s worth remembering the saying with data: “if you look hard enough, you can find anything you want to”.
A friend of mine works as a quant at one of the big investment banks. He admitted that the models his team creates are useless at predicting the unexpected (as you’d probably expect). Adding in a degree of randomness rarely produces better models, as there are too many possible sources of such unpredictability and the reactions to them depend on many unquantifiable forces. This results in models that are OK at telling traders what they want to know – that they’re doing the right thing by all doing the same thing. As soon as something undesirable or unexpected happens, then all hell breaks loose and the traders panic. Having mulled this over for a bit, I suggested his job was pointless, to which he agreed, but pointed out that the pay’s great. So much wasted mathematical genius.
“The service helps users leverage historical data to make predictions that can guide real-time decisions.”